Primary Presents Tough Questions for the General Election

THE CANDIDATES

Fact 1: The Oregon Democratic Party has won 10 gubernatorial elections in a row, dating back to 1986.

Fact 2: The public employee unions are now in complete control of the Democratic Party, which was not the case in 1986 when the party began its extraordinary winning streak.

Fact 3: With the departure of State Sen. Betsy Johnson from the Democratic Party and her entrance into the governor’s race as a well-funded, non-affiliated candidate, the Democratic Party is officially having a civil war, with those opposing public employee union rule attempting to establish a different political master for the state of Oregon.

Fact 4: Civil wars inside the ruling incumbent party traditionally mean victory for the out-of-power party (see the presidential elections of 1912 and 1992).

Questions: Will the governor’s race be seen as a battle between two Democratic candidates and one Republican candidate? Or will the race be viewed as one union/progressive candidate against two conservative candidates? Will non-affiliated Johnson take more votes from Democratic nominee Kotek or from Republican nominee Drazan?

Let’s look at the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate.

Democrat Tina Kotek
Strength: As de facto head of the public employee unions, she delivered an impressive primary victory over State Treasurer Tobias Reed 56-34 percent (at this count). The margin of victory surprised political observers and demonstrated once again the power of the public unions inside the Democratic Party.

Weakness: Kotek is attempting to succeed Gov. Kate Brown, who holds the lowest approval ratings for a governor in the nation. Voters are not in the mood to reelect incumbents, and Kotek represents the incumbent party. A February DHM poll of the generic ballot test in Oregon showed a remarkable spread in favor of Republicans – 47R to 29D.

The question: What percentage of Tobias Reed voters will defect to Sen. Betsy Johnson?

Non-affiliated Betsy Johnson

Strength: Johnson is one of the more articulate Oregon politicians in a generation and friend and peer to numerous Oregon entrepreneurs, business owners and donors, including Phil Knight, Tim Boyle and Jordan Pape.

Weakness: She doesn't have a political party at this point, so she won’t have access to national fundraising help, nor does she have a built-in voting bloc base.

The question: Can she win? The numbers are formidably against her. For her to win, one of the two major party candidates must run below 30 percent. That would be historically unprecedented and extraordinary were that to happen.

Republican Christine Drazan
Strength: Drazan heads the Republican ticket during a "Red Wave" year that promises to be a national counterreaction to the utterly incompetent, some would say disastrous Biden presidency. Drazan is competent, attractive, a fresh face. She could create a solid case for dramatic change to voters who clearly state in polls their unhappiness with Oregon’s direction.

Weakness: Labeled a RINO by Oregon’s talk radio hosts during the GOP primary, she was unable to build enthusiasm with the party’s base during her candidacy. She was easily out-negotiated by House Speaker and Democratic nominee Tina Kotek on more than one occasion during her tenure as Republican House minority leader.

The question: Does she have enough “presence” to share the debate stage with proven formidable opponents, Betsy Johnson and Tina Kotek? Or will she present herself at all? (Drazan carefully avoided many public forums during the primary.)

THE VOTERS

Fact 1: Gov. Brown has the lowest approval numbers in the country, running somewhere in the mid-30s. It is the first time in the 40-year history of Democrat Party rule in Oregon that a governor’s approval rating has been below 40%.

Fact 2: Joe Biden’s numbers are even worse. According to CNN, some 70% of Democrat voters disapprove of his presidency.

Fact 3: As mentioned earlier, a February 2022 poll conducted by DHM for OPB has Oregon voters in a generic ballot test favoring Republicans statewide 47 to 29%. That suggests a tremendous amount of voter anger.

Question: So where did the “voter anger” suggested in the DHM poll go in the May 17 primary?

Apparently nowhere.

Status quo big government Democrat figures were reelected with ease in Oregon’s May 17 primary election – figures such as Metro President Lynn Peterson and Washington County Board of Commissioners Chair Kathryn Harrington. Even a figure as controversial as Portland City Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty ran well ahead of her two closest opponents. The only result on Election Day that raised eyebrows was the defeat of six-term congressman Kurt Schrader to his leftist progressive opponent, Jamie McLeod Skinner. However, Schrader’s defeat felt more like a Democrat Party “moderate cleansing” than it did outright voter anger against the political establishment, but there could be some overlap there. The real result with show up in the general election.

In a closed political primary with low voter turnout, as Oregon’s was on May 17, it appears that voter anger did not resonate, even during this recent era of record low approval numbers for incumbents. This is especially true in nonpartisan races where non-affiliated voters who might disapprove of current officeholders did not bother to vote. Closed primary elections appear to be, at least as far as Oregon is concerned, a strong benefit to incumbents.

Maybe November’s election will more truly reflect the mood of the public. Or maybe not. When 70% of voters have expressed their clear disapproval of the state’s direction, something is off if November brings us another progressive leftist like Kotek, even during an obvious Red Wave. Picture this: In November, 65% of voters choose a “change” candidate (Drazan, Johnson), but the candidate with the remaining 35% of the vote (Kotek) wins. If that happens, and it very well could, big backers of the opposition candidates – from the Salem lobby crowd behind Drazan to the corporate execs (Knight, Boyle and Pape) behind Johnson – have a reckoning to face. And it will probably last eight years.